The Beckley Micropolitan Statistical Area is forecast to experience modest job losses and a much higher unemployment rate during the next two years, according to a forecast released Tuesday (Sept. 29) by the West Virginia University College of Business and Economics. The Beckley Micropolitan Statistical Area includes Raleigh County.

“The Beckley area has generated strong job growth during the past five years, at faster rates than either the state or the nation,” said George W. Hammond, associate director of the WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research. “However, the local economy is expected to feel the impact of slow global growth during the next two years, generating little or no new jobs during that time.”

“This study, generated by the Raleigh County Commission, is to assist our constituents in preparing for the change in our economy in the next five years,” said Commissioner Pat Reed. “Although the down draft is unavoidable, we wanted to secure information in advance for our people to be knowledgeable of the predictions for our area.”

Raleigh County Commissioner John D. Humphrey said, “Anytime that you can see even a slight growth and be in line with the national average predictions, it puts West Virginia/Raleigh County in a decent position for the future.”

The modest job losses are likely to be associated with a large increase in the local unemployment rate, which is forecast to surge from 3.9 percent in 2008 to 7.6 percent this year.

The forecast also calls for growth to rebound in 2012 and continue into 2013, assuming that U.S. economic activity revives. “Overall, the local economy is forecast to generate modest job growth on average during the next five years,” Hammond said. That job growth is expected to be well below growth during the past five years, but close to the state and national rates.

The forecast assumes that environmental policies do not change during the next five years. “If we see tighter restrictions on surface mining techniques and/or the imposition of cap-and-trade policies to reduce carbon emissions, then that will likely adversely affect coal mining activity in the county, and generate slower county growth,” Hammond concluded.

Full details are available in the Beckley MicroSA forecast publication, which is available free of charge at www.bber.wvu.edu.

sm/9-25-09

Contact: Dr. George Hammond
Associate director, Bureau of Business and Economic Research
Associate professor of economics
304-293-7887
George.Hammond@mail.wvu.edu