The Morgantown metropolitan area isexpected to continue to grow this year despite ananticipated national downturn, according to a forecast released today (March 12) at the Morgantown Economic Outlook Conference. The annual conferenceis sponsored by the West Virginia University Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) in the College of Business and Economics.

The Morgantown metropolitan statistical area (MSA) economy is one of the most dynamic in the state,said George W. Hammond, associate director of the BBER and author of the study.Indeed, the metropolitan area, which includes Monongalia and Preston counties, has posted job, inflation-adjusted per capita personal income and population growth rates far in excess of the state average so far this decade.

Job growth in the Morgantown MSA averaged 3.2 percent per year during the 2002-07 period, far exceeding the state rate of 0.7 percent and the national rate of 1.1 percent.

Job growth has been strong for most industries, but it has been particularly strong in construction and leisure and hospitality,Hammond said.

Growth of jobs in construction has been driven by large new investments in residential, nonresidential (retail, commercial, hospital and University-related expansions) and utility (Longview Power Plant) projects. Leisure and hospitality job gains reflect new activity at restaurants and bars, hotels andlocal gaming establishments.

Inflation-adjusted per capita personal income growth has also been relatively strong in the metropolitan area, averaging 2.7 percent per year from 2000-05, compared to 1.6 percent for the state and 0.8 percent for the nation. Strong job and income growth have contributed to solid population gains with the metropolitan area adding about 3,500 residents during the last five years.

The forecast calls for the region to continue to expand during the next five years, even as the nation is predicted to fall into recession during 2008,Hammond said.

The national recession is expected to be short and mild,thereby causinglocal growth to decelerate but not stop, he added.

Job gains in the Morgantown MSA are expected to come primarily in the service-providing sector (health care, government, leisure and hospitality, and trade, transportation and utilities), but the goods-producing sector contributes as well,Hammond said.

Construction job growth continues to be strong locally as the region continues work on commercial, retail, health-related, University, utility and other government projects.

Full details are available in the Morgantown MSA forecast publication available online athttp://www.bber.wvu.edu.