The Wheeling metropolitan area is forecast to continue to generate job and income gains during the next five years, according to a new forecast released today (May 2) at the Wheeling Metro Area Outlook breakfast.

The Wheeling metropolitan statistical area (MSA) has added jobs and inflation-adjusted per capita personal income during the 2001-2005 period.

This has been accomplished in spite of continued large population declines in the MSA ,said George W. Hammond, research associate professor in the College of Business and Economics at West Virginia University.

The job gains in the region, combined with population losses, have driven the Wheeling MSA unemployment down significantly since 2002. The Wheeling MSA includes Marshall and Ohio counties in West Virginia and Belmont County in Ohio.

The Wheeling MSA added 1,700 non farm payroll jobs from 2001 to 2005 and the outlook calls for job gains in the region to continue through 2011.

Job growth is forecast to average 500 jobs per year, which translates into an average annual rate of growth of 0.8 percent per year, similar to the state rate but below the national rate of 1.4 percent per year,Hammond continued.

Job growth is expected to be fastest in trade, transportation and utilities; professional and business services; and leisure and hospitality during the forecast period. Job gains in trade, transportation and utilities, as well as leisure and hospitality, reflect expected job gains at the Highlands during the period. Leisure and hospitality job growth also reflects gains at Wheeling Island Racetrack and Gaming Center, which is expected to maintain its competitive advantage over competing establishments in Pennsylvania through the adoption of table games.

Professional and business services are also forecast to add jobs during the 2005-2011 period, as call centers and back office services continue to be competitive in the region. Natural resources, mining and construction jobs stabilize in the Wheeling MSA after generating strong job growth during the 2001-2005 period. Manufacturing employment losses are forecast to continue during the forecast, but at a significantly slower pace. Health care, other services and government jobs are forecast to rise modestly during the forecast period.

Risks to the baseline outlook center on the ability of Wheeling Island Racetrack and Gaming Center to maintain its competitive edge over establishments located in Pennsylvania and on the ability of local chemical and steel producers to withstand tough competitive pressures from plants located around the U.S. and around the world. The region also faces major workforce development challenges as a large share of the regions workers hit retirement age during the next decade.

The conference was sponsored by WVU s Bureau of Business and Economic Research in the College of Business and Economics, the McKinley Investment Group, the Regional Economic Development Partnership and the Wheeling Area Chamber of Commerce.

Full details are available in the Wheeling MSA forecast publication, which is available online atwww.bber.wvu.edu. Hardcopies may be ordered from Patricia McDade at patricia.mcdade@mail.wvu.edu for $10 each.