The West Virginia economy is expected to continue hitting new highs in employment, according to the latest forecast released by the West Virginia University College of Business and Economics.
The forecast was issued today (Nov. 17) at the 12th annual West Virginia Economic Outlook Conference in Charleston.
West Virginia has rebounded nicely from a jobs recession that began in 2000 and ended in 2003,said George Hammond, research associate professor in the WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research and author of the study.The forecast calls for the state to continue adding jobs, and incomeadjusted for inflationis expected to rise during the next five years, assuming the national economy avoids recession,Hammond continued.
Strong gains in coal mining and construction, along with solid growth in professional and business services, health care and tourism-related sectors have contributed to resurgent state job growth since 2003. The forecast for the next five years calls for continued job gains in coal mining, as energy demand remains high.
Construction jobs stabilize at high levels during the forecast, as rising mortgage interest rates take some of the zip out of residential construction activity. However, most jobs added during the next five years are expected to come in professional and business services (including high-tech sectors such as biometrics); health care; and tourism-related sectors.
Within the manufacturing sector, chemicals, primary metals (steel) and glass products are expected to continue to post job losses. In contrast, wood products and furniture, transportation equipment, fabricated metals and plastics are expected to add jobs during the forecast.
Overall state job growth translates into continued gains in inflation-adjusted income in West Virginia during the forecast. On a per capita basis, these gains come at about the same rate as nationally, which implies that the per capita personal income gap stabilizes around current levels, leaving West Virginia per capita income 22 percent below the nation.
West Virginia income and job growth rates fall below expected national rates during the forecast, which contributes to state population losses. These population losses are expected to be concentrated in the younger age groups (birth-17 and 18-44) while population gains come in the 45-64 and the 65-and-older age group. This implies a continued rapid aging of the states population.
Copies of the full forecast publication are available from the WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research for $30 each. Contact Patricia McDade at (304) 293-7831.