The Morgantown Metropolitan Statistical Area is poised to register another increase in construction activity in 2004.

Thats the word, according to the January edition of the Morgantown MSA Economic Monitor, published by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research in West Virginia Universitys College of Business and Economics. The publication was released today (Jan. 27).

Through November 2004, the value of construction starts in the MSA are on a pace to hit $186 million for the year,said George Hammond, co-author of the report and bureau research assistant professor.This is a large increase over the $104 million in new construction starts posted in 2003.

Strong growth in the value of construction starts reflects low interest rates, population growth and generally optimistic sentiment regarding the future of the region.While mortgage interest rates have been very low, they are expected to gradually rise during the next five years,Hammond noted.

U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates are currently forecast by Global Insight Inc., a major forecasting firm, to rise from 5.89 percent in 2004 to 6.71 percent by 2006. Although steadily rising mortgage rates could dampen activity in the near future, construction in the region is likely to be supported by continued job and population growth.

Indeed, with many other large projects currently proposed (for example, a large new power plant, major retail expansions, additional hospital and medical research facilities, expansion and renovation of WVU facilities and other public projects), there will likely be strong construction activity in the region during the next few years, Hammond said.

The Morgantown MSA Monitor is published quarterly by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research with sponsorship from Bruceton Bank and is available free athttp://www.bber.wvu.eduand http://www.brucetonbank.com